Wine and spirits trends in 2023
For many people January represents the time of year to refresh their lives and look towards the future. Either by cleaning out closets, renewing memberships to gyms, or promising to call “Mom” more often, we all have our yearly routines come January. Mine includes checking out trends with food and beverage forecasts being my favorites.
This post, which focuses on wine and spirits, will be the first of a two-part series. Next week, we will tackle what’s trending in the world of food and hospitality.
As with any prediction—be they for fashion, travel, or wine and spirits—all are in reaction to shifting consumer attitudes. Normally, these changes are in response to external factors. Covid would be a good example of one of the most important influences on people’s recent choice of alcoholic beverages.
Let’s take a quick dive into just a few post-pandemic predictions. This brief compilation was gathered through my admittedly informal and totally unscientific research method: findings on the internet, discoveries in newspaper and magazines articles, and most importantly, conversations with friends, many of whom are experts in the field.
Trend #1: Mindful moderation
Let’s first consider the increasingly popular phenomenon of “Dry January.” This concept began in 2012 as a public health initiative launched by Alcohol Change UK, a British charity. Fast forward and now millions of people around the world voluntarily partake in this month-long health challenge of totally abstaining from alcohol after December’s holiday excess. This approach to a cleaner, healthier lifestyle has recently morphed into a choice between a “Dry” or a “Damp” January.
When I first encountered the term “Damp,” I immediately thought it described people who periodically fell off January’s sobriety wagon. In fact, “Damp” refers to individuals who limit their alcohol intake rather than eliminate it entirely throughout January. This latter choice seems to me to be a more attainable goal, especially for someone who enjoys wine and spirits on a regular basis.
Lars Leicht (wine educator, writer, and marketer) scoffs at the notion of a completely “Dry” January and even a “Damp” one.
I do agree with you on the “wetting” of Dry January. I’ve always felt it a silly exercise – better to just invoke moderation all year round rather than a one-in-twelve cold turkey session.
Trend #2: The raising popularity of no and low alcohol beverages
Anthony Giglio, former sommelier, and Wine Director for The American Express Centurion Global Lounge Network, recently commented on how the “Dry” and “Damp” annual reset has changed consumer attitude toward non-alcoholic beverages. In Mosaic, a publication for Morgan Stanley’s private wealth clients, he wrote:
But the idea of moderation spilling over beyond the first 31 days of the new year, thanks to a tidal wave of well-made non-alcoholic options flooding the market, makes it easier to abstain from alcohol while still imbibing something delicious.
Giglio further elaborated citing research from Nielson IQ telling us that in 2021 Americans spent $3.3 billion on no and low alcoholic products. However, he contends that moderation is as much to play here as all-out abstinence for those consumers paying attention to their intake of alcohol.
Pat Cobe (Senior editor, Restaurant Business) further comments on one of this year’s most promising trends:
Alcohol-free cocktails are table stakes. There’s no doubt mocktails have been evolving into classy no-alcohol drinks for several years now, but there's been a noticeable uptick in the scope of this trend. Restaurants and bars now have separate sections of the menu labeled “zero-proof drinks,” “spirit-free cocktails” or any number of names not associated with the word “mocktail.” These are sophisticated, well-balanced drinks expertly crafted by skilled bartenders and mixologists—not a slapdash combo of fruit juices and fizzy water. Drinks made with higher-quality alcohol-free spirits from brands like Ritual, Seedlip and Lyre are readily available now. There's evidence that Gen Z is leading the charge, seeking out venues for "sober socialization." In response, a small number of sober bars have opened, and I expect to see more of these in the year ahead.
Trend #3: The new marriage of premiumization with sustainability
Consumers have been drinking better for several years now by upgrading to higher quality, more expensive products. Having an eco-friendly mindset has recently joined this premiumization trend. According to IWSR Drinks Market Analysis, in an article by SevenFifty Daily, 48 % of drinking-age Americans agree that sustainability affects their buying decision.
Incorporating sustainable energy alternatives, carbon off-sets as well as waste and energy reductions affect wineries and distillers alike. These eco initiatives coupled with the increasing demand for local ingredients, often more expensive, all add to a higher price tag for the product. Luckily, consumers seem willing to pay for the upcharge.
Trend #4: The impact of climate change
Global warming continues to have a dramatic impact on the wine and spirits industry who has responded by taking decisive action. For example, wine growers are rethinking how and where they grow their grapes in addition to which varieties to plant. With the increased unpredictability of forest fires, droughts and floods adding to the mix, wine regions now have no choice but to adapt.
On the bright side of things, challenges also bring opportunities. Dr. Michael Apstein, a Gastroenterologist and wine writer, further expands on the outcome of changing weather conditions:
There will be more attention and research on combatting climate change with new viticultural practices. Previously marginal appellations, such as Bourgogne Blanc or Bourgogne Rouge, will see increased popularity as climate change helps ripening.
Under the radar Burgundy appellations, such as Vézelay or Bourgogne Tonnerre, will start to appear on the screen as consumers realize the value they deliver.
Trend #5: Thinking outside the box
Leicht comments on the increasing openness of wine buyers to discover new options:
What I have noticed in wine consumption is a post-covid trend that goes beyond the ‘drink better’ axiom. Usually that would apply to higher quality in terms of higher pricing, splurging on things. But what I’m seeing is people opting for more simple wines, great values in drinkable/quaffable wines, rather than the show-off labels. Two-plus years of varied levels of quarantine taught a lot of us that we really don’t need to impress anybody after all, but should do – and eat, and drink – what we like, what brings us comfort, what makes us happy and satisfied. Money is not necessarily an object, but extravagance is no longer something to be envied or pursued.
This new trend was borne out by a friend who recently came to dinner. Harvey Shapiro, a film industry lawyer, went to his local wine shop to buy a bottle of Chassagne Montrachet to go with the lobster risotto planned for the evening’s entrée. After recovering from sticker shock (the renowned vineyards of Chassagne Montrachet have recently been plagued by bad weather resulting in low production), he asked the retailer for another choice. Eventually, he opted for Château de Beaune which is a blend of four Premier Cru vineyards owned by Bouchard Père et Fils. As he explains his retail experience:
I wanted to explore wines outside of my comfort zone and within a reasonable price range. The Château de Beaune was substantially less than the Chassagne Montrachet but equally delicious.
Trend # 6: The continued popularity of Tequila and Mezcal
Lenny Phillips, owner of Midtown Manhattan’s Ambassador Wines & Spirits, weighed in on Tequila and Mezcal’s on-going phenomenon. He attributes the category’s initial surge in popularity to bored vodka drinkers seeking something new.
It’s all about marketing hype and timing, both of which fell into place making it the perfect storm for change within the category. Then along came the celebrities.
Phillips is a walking encyclopedia of wine and spirits knowledge. When he saw the look of confusion on my face, he reminded me of Cabo Wabo, the first of the celebrity Tequilas, created in 1996 by Rock & Roll Hall of Famer Sammy Hagar. Prior to that, according to Phillips, Tequilas were mostly a mass-produced, low end product. Many brands, for example, used additives—such as sugar-based syrups, glycerin, and caramel—to mask flaws. However, celebrity brand owners demanded a higher quality product which spawned small-batch, long-aged Tequilas. In other words, something which would not induce major hangovers!
This subcategory exploded with a gaggle of other superstars such as George Clooney, Michael Jordan, and even Elon Musk joined the quality revolution. The result? A total facelift for the category.
In his professorial tone, Phillips continued to expound on the evolving popularity for the Mezcal niche. He attributes Mezcal’s increasing popularity to its image as the purest expression of a white spirit. “What does this mean?”, I asked. Phillips, a former chemist, explained that whereas vodkas produced from grains have certain impurities as by-products of distillation, not so with Mezcal. Mezcal is made 100 % from the agave fruit then is double distilled using only the heart, or purest part, of the initial distillation for the final process. Another positive attribute is that by law no sugar can be added to Mezcal. To top it off, this spirit is reputed to have certain health benefits making it the darling of the wellness crowd. However, calling Mezcal healthy might be a bit of a stretch.
Trend #7: Spirit-based RTDs gain ground over hard seltzers
A IWSR Drinks Market Analysis study predicts that Vodka and Tequila ready-to-drink (RTD) cocktails will be a driving force in the category eventually overtaking hard seltzers. RTDs are premixed, packaged alcoholic beverages. Originally targeted to younger consumers as a low alcohol, value offering, today’s RTDs are something entirely different. Due to a push for premiumization, the category is now being dominated by full strength spirit producers who are producing top-quality, highly crafted and stylishly packaged cocktails ready for immediate consumption.
Trend #8: Higher prices are not going away
Dr. Apstein predicts that higher prices for all alcoholic beverages is here to stay.
Restaurant prices will continue to soar, but likely won’t dampen demand.
Consumers can expect higher prices both on and off-premises. However, according to SipSource, in 2020 prices rose higher on-premise than off. Why? Because restaurants and bars must also deal with labor shortage along with higher prices for food and rent, all of which boosts the price for alcoholic beverages.
But look on the bright side. You can always go to your favorite retailer and pick up a premium RTD cocktail to enjoy in the comfort of your home. Whatever you select, most likely it can be poured into an iconic martini glass, too. Then, you can pretend to be in one of New York’s sexiest cocktail lounges without having to confront the staggering $25 price tag for your drink.